Commercial Auto Claims Trends

What is driving commercial auto losses.

Data through Aug 2026 (prices) and Aug 2026 (miles driven).

Commercial auto renewals follow loss costs. Severity is what each claim costs to fix and treat: vehicle repair, parts, body work and medical care. Frequency is how many claims happen: more miles driven, more people working and more freight moving mean more collisions. Both charts use public federal data, updated as released.

Severity

Hospital services costs are rising 1.6× faster than overall prices (+5.5% vs +3.4%); 3 of 5 claim-cost lines are outpacing CPI.

Latest year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index. Orange bars run above headline CPI (3.4% in Aug 2026); the dashed line marks CPI. Motor vehicle insurance prices are −5.1% year over year, 8.5 points below headline CPI.

  • Hospital servicesAug 2026+5.5%▲ 2.2 pts above CPI
  • Vehicle repair and maintenanceAug 2026+5.2%▲ 1.9 pts above CPI
  • Vehicle body workJul 2026+3.6%▲ 0.2 pts above CPI
  • All items (headline CPI)Aug 2026+3.4%
  • Medical care servicesAug 2026+2.5%▼ 0.9 pts below CPI
  • Vehicle parts and equipmentAug 2026+0.9%▼ 2.4 pts below CPI
  • Motor vehicle insuranceAug 2026−5.1%▼ 8.5 pts below CPI

Each row shows its own latest month: body work is published for fewer months than the others. Motor vehicle insurance is what carriers charge, not a claim cost, so it is shown for context and left out of the count above.

Sources: All items (CPIAUCSL); Maintenance and repair (CUSR0000SETD); Body work (CUUR0000SETD01, BLS); Parts and equipment (CUSR0000SETC); Hospital services (CUSR0000SEMD); Medical care services (CUSR0000SAM2); Motor vehicle insurance (CUSR0000SETE, BLS).

Frequency

Miles driven are flat (+0.1% YoY) and payrolls barely growing (+0.3%) — no frequency push from more driving.

Year-over-year change in the 3-month average of each series, since 2022. These are exposure proxies, not claim counts. Truck tonnage is up 0.1% year over year (3-month average to Jul 2026).

  • Miles driven
  • Nonfarm payrolls
  • Truck tonnage
-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%20222023202420252026

Sources: Vehicle miles traveled (TRFVOLUSM227NFWA); Total nonfarm payrolls (PAYEMS); Truck tonnage index (TRUCKD11).

Method And Caveats

National indicators, not your book.
Treat them as direction.

  • Price series are BLS CPI for All Urban Consumers, US city average. They measure consumer prices, so they track commercial fleet repair and medical costs only loosely.
  • Year-over-year change compares each month with the same month a year earlier. The frequency chart averages three months first to smooth holidays and weather.
  • Vehicle miles traveled, payrolls and truck tonnage are economy-wide. Fleet size, routes and driver mix drive an individual account's frequency far more.
  • The ratio in each headline is a plain division of two growth rates. It is unstable when the denominator is small.

The property figure is an indicative statistical estimate from historical market data, not a quote, rate indication, or coverage recommendation. Actual renewal outcomes depend on your own loss history, exposures, and underwriting, and can differ from the market-wide trend shown here. General liability and umbrella and excess are shown for context only and are not forecast.